01 — Outlook · FY2025

FY2025 outlook landed below actual operating profit even when built directly from adidas's own guidance, while working capital remains the largest source of forecast risk.

Driver-based operating profit forecast missed actual FY2025 results by 14.9% (€1,750m vs. €2,056m actual).
Working capital shows high sensitivity to free cash flow (high confidence assumption).
Naive extrapolation would have missed by more on every metric — see Forecast & Risk.
Working capital alone moved free cash flow by €-372m versus forecast (assumed 21.5, actual 23.0).
Free cash flow missed by only €+37m, but that nets €808m of gross driver error — the forecast was close on cash for offsetting reasons, not sound ones.

Revenue forecast

€25.59bn

+3.1% vs. actual

Operating profit forecast

€1.75bn

−14.9% vs. actual

Free cash flow forecast

€1.07bn

−3.4% vs. actual

Built as of FY2024 using only that year’s data and adidas’s own stated FY2025 guidance — deltas shown are the forecast error against what actually happened, not a live re-forecast.

Backtested against FY2025 actuals

Naive extrapolation Driver-based

Revenue

3.1%

5.5%

Operating profit

14.9%

22.3%

Free cash flow

3.4%

14.8%

Absolute forecast error vs. FY2025 actuals

Full backtest and Monte Carlo range →

Management attention

1
Working capital
High sensitivity·High confidence
2
EBITDA margin
Medium sensitivity·Medium confidence
3
Capex
Medium sensitivity·High confidence

Open Scenario Planner →

Largest financial exposure

The base forecast assumes working capital at 21.5% of net sales. Actual FY2025 came in at 23.0% — modelling that single change against an otherwise unchanged base forecast moves free cash flow by −€384m, more than any other single driver at this magnitude of move.